Rising Unemployment and the Global Youth Bulge

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WHAT IS AT STAKE

Recent shocks provoked by the international financial crisis have exposed severe weaknesses with the existing global economic system and have rapidly spread to the employment sector, triggering a global jobs crisis the likes of which has not been seen in the past 70 years.

This rising instability in the international labor market is increasing the risk of political and social turmoil, especially, although not exclusively, in much of the developing south. What is of particular concern is that one billion young people – mainly in the developing world – will reach employment age within the next decade. Many of the countries which will experience this demographic shift are some of the most vulnerable in terms of political and social instability and are already severely limited by the lack of employment opportunities available for integrating youth into the labor market.

This is worrying for several reasons:

  • Historical evidence: there is an abundance of historical evidence establishing a direct link between societies with large proportions of young people and political and social violence, especially when employment prospects are severely limited;
  • Rapid urbanization: many cities in the developing south lack the infrastructure and resources to support large bursts of population growth, yet more and more rural youth are moving to metropolitan areas in search of employment only to find inadequate economic opportunities; and
  • False expectations: the educational opportunities afforded by recent development progress means there are more skilled workers in the world than available prospects. I.e.: there is fundamental disconnect between the demand for work and the supply of jobs.

Together these factors are substantial drivers of social and political violence in already unstable countries. The lack of economic opportunities contributes to feelings of helplessness, marginalization, and impoverishment. Frustration in the search for status and livelihood heightens the attraction to illicit activities and intensifies the anger directed at society, manifesting itself in various forms of social disturbance including violent extremism and radicalization.

Society also pays a price in terms of lost investment in education, failure to secure tax contributions due to the loss of earnings from younger generations, and lack of savings translate into a loss of aggregate demand.

While developing countries will bear the brunt of this phenomenon, it is certainly not limited to their borders. Individuals or groups engaging in illicit and/or extremist activities and acting across international frontiers may well perpetrate atrocities leveled at the very people or nations they hold responsible for their lot. In the Middle East, for example, the lack of economic opportunities has been a driving factor for youth to join illegal organizations and movements.

 

AREAS AT RISK

Sub-Saharan Africa, southern Asia, the Middle East, and the Pacific Islands are the regions with the most widespread youth bulges. Globally there are 62 countries that have 2/3 of their populations under the age of 30; these include Nigeria, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. In the Middle East, 60 percent of the population is under 251.

 

WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE?

Addressing rising unemployment and the global youth bulge requires actions at the national, regional, and global levels. Members of the Parliamentarians Network are particularly well positioned to address the potential for violent conflict by driving legislative changes and enforcing early action by their governments towards improving preventive diplomatic efforts.

One of the most critical issues facing youth today is the sheer volume of demand for jobs compared to their availability. While there are regional focal points to this trend, it is nonetheless increasingly becoming a global issue. Parliamentarians can raise awareness with their constituencies about the mounting national, regional, and global challenge of unemployment and the global youth bulge. They can also call on their governments to do the same and additionally:

  • Increase capacity building and share best practices between relevant ministries, especially on lessons learnt from: job creation schemes targeted at youth, financing schemes for youth-led employment initiatives, and the development of youth skills-training schemes;
  • Provide better access to information concerning decisions that are being made to benefit youth, and where appropriate increase youth consultation and participation in decision-making that directly affects them; and
  • Investigate, address, and develop targeted responses to particular youth risk issues such as: youth unemployment in urban areas, youth with special needs, and gender inequality.

 

WHO IS DOING WHAT ALREADY?

  • Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research: CGIAR works to achieve sustainable food security and reduce poverty in developing countries through scientific research and research-related activities in the fields of agriculture, forestry, fisheries, policy, and environment.
  • Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios: EACH-FOR is a two year long research project funded by the European Commission. Its goal is to support European policies, research and the civil society with 'forced migration' scenarios, and cooperate with other migration and environment degradation related projects and institutions
  • Food and Agriculture Organization: The FAO leads international efforts to defeat hunger. Serving both developed and developing countries, FAO acts as a forum where nations meet to negotiate agreements and debate policy. FAO also helps developing countries and countries in transition modernize and improve agriculture, forestry and fisheries practices and ensure good nutrition for all. 
  • Human Security Network: The HSN is a group of like-minded countries that maintains dialogue on questions pertaining to human security. The HSN identifies concrete areas for collective action and pursues security policies that focus on the protection and security requirement of the individual and society.
  • International Organization for Migration: IOM works to help ensure the orderly and humane management of migration, to promote international cooperation on migration issues, to assist in the search for practical solutions to migration problems, and to provide humanitarian assistance to migrants in need, including refugees and internally displaced people.
  • Population Action International: PAI works to ensure that every person has the right and access to sexual and reproductive health, so that humanity and the natural environment can exist in balance and fewer people live in poverty. PAI fosters the development of U.S. and international policy on urgent population and reproductive health issues through an integrated program of research, advocacy and communications.
  • The Famine Early Warning Systems Network: FEWS NET collaborates with international, regional and national partners to provide timely and rigorous early warning and vulnerability information on emerging and evolving food security issues.
  • The Future Group: a Canadian-based non-governmental organization dedicated to combating human trafficking and the child sex trade.
  • The Global Commission on International Migration: GCIM was launched by the United Nations Secretary-General and a number of governments in 2003. It is comprised of 19 Commissioners, is independent and was given the mandate to provide the framework for the formulation of a coherent, comprehensive and global response to the issue of international migration.
  • The International Food Policy Research Institute: IFPRI seeks sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty. IFPRI's vision (a world free of hunger and malnutrition) is based on the human right to adequate food and freedom from hunger, and the recognition of the dignity inherent in all human beings.
  • The Migration Policy Institute: MPI is an independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit think tank dedicated to analysis of the movement of people worldwide. It provides analysis, development, and evaluation of migration and refugee policies at the local, national, and international levels. It aims to meet the rising demand for pragmatic and thoughtful responses to the challenges and opportunities that large-scale migration, whether voluntary or forced, presents to communities and institutions in an increasingly integrated world.
  • United Nations Development Program: the UNDP advocates for change and connects countries to knowledge, experience and resources to help people build a better life. UNDP works in 166 countries to build local to global and national development challenges.
  • United Nations Population Fund: UNFPA supports countries in using population data for policies and programs to reduce poverty and to ensure that every pregnancy is wanted, every birth is safe, every young person is free of HIV/AIDS, and every girl and woman is treated with dignity and respect.

Others players and initiatives include: UNEP, UNESCO, UNICEF, WFP, OECD, the World Bank, Human Rights Watch, etc.
 

KEY DOCUMENTS FOR REFERENCE

  • African Population & Health Research Center (APHRC). “The effects of population growth on the achievement of the MDG on child mortality in urban Sub-Saharan Africa.” 15 March 2006: 1-9
  • All Party Parliamentary Group on Population, Development and Reproductive Health. “Return of the population growth factor: its impact upon the MDG.” Report of Hearings Jan. 2007:1-74
  • “Armed Conflict and Hunger – Underlying Causes of Hunger and Conflict.” Hunger Notes <http://www.worldhunger.org/articles/fall2000/messer5.htm>
  • Beehner, Lionel. “The effects of ‘Youth Bulge’ on civil conflicts.” Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) 27 Apr. 2007 <http://www.cfr.org/publication/13093>
  • “Brussels declaration on preventing and combating trafficking in Human Beings.” Migration Information Source, Migration Policy Institute <http://www.migrationinformation.org/Feature/brussels.cfm>
  • Callovi, Giuseppe, and the staff of the Migration Policy Institute. “Securing External Frontiers in a Union of 25.” Dutch Presidency Conference on Asylum, Migration and Frontiers, Policy Brief 5, Sept. 2004 <http://www.migrationpolicy.org/events/callovi_083104.pdf>
  • EACH-FOR. “Preliminary Findings from the EACH-FOR project on Environmentally induced Migration.” Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios Project, 1 Sept. 2008: 1-32<http://www.each-for.eu/documents/EACH-FOR_Preliminary_Findings_-_Final_Version.pdf>.
  • Fix, Michael, Demetrios G. Papademetriou, and Betsy Cooper. “Leaving too much to chance: a roundtable on Immigration Integration Policy.” Migration Policy Institute 2005: 1-39 <http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/LeavingTooMuch_Report.pdf>
  • Geinitz, Dedo, and Ines Reinhard. “Conflict Migration through food security?” Integrated Food Security Programme (IFSP) Trincomalee, Sri Lanka, Working Paper 36 (Nov. 2002)
  • Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Ragnhild Nordǻs, and Idean Salehyan. “Climate change and conflict: the migration link” Coping with Crisis Working Paper Series, International Peace Academy May 2007: 1-19 <http://www.ipacademy.org/asset/file/169/CWC_Working_Paper_Climate_Change.pdf>
  • Global Commission on International Migration (GCIM). “Migration in an interconnected world: new directions for action.” Oct. 2005: 1-98
  • “Human Security Crisis of Global Proportions.” The Future Group, Human Trafficking – Overview 2007 <http://tfgwebmaster.web.aplus.net/wwwthefuturegrouporg/id20.html>
  • International Organization for Migration (IOM) & Permanent Mission of Greece, Geneva. “Climate change, environmental degradation and migration: addressing vulnerabilities and harnessing opportunities.” Report of the conference Geneva 19 Feb. 2008:1-20
  • “Impact of the crisis on developing countries.” CONCORD Briefing Paper Feb. 2009
  • “Impact of the global financial crisis on migration.” IOM, Policy Paper Geneva Jan. 2009.
  • International Labour Organization (ILO). “Global employment trends for youth.” Geneva 2006: 1-58
  • Messer, Ellen, and Marc J. Cohen. “Conflict, Food Insecurity, and Globalization.” International Food Policy Research Institute (FCND), Food Consumption and Nutrition Division, Discussion Paper 206, May 2006:1-60
  • Pastor, Manuel, and Rhonda Ortiz. “Immigration Integration in Los Angeles – Strategic Directions for Funders.” Program for Environmental and Regional Equity & Center for the Study of Immigrant Integration, University of Southern California, Commissioned by the California Community Foundation, Jan. 2009 <http://college.usc.edu/geography/ESPE/documents/immigrant_integration.pdf>
  • Sangeeta Kumari Singh Deo. Statement. “Agenda item 50: Implementation of the outcome of the United Nations conference on human settlements (HABITAT II) and strengthening of the United nations human settlements programme (UN-HABITAT) at the second committee of the 63rd session of the United Nations General Assembly.” 28 Oct. 2008
  • “The good, The Bad, The Promising: Migration in the 21st century.” UNFPA State of World Population 2006, A passage to hope, Women and International Migration 27 Feb. 2009 <http://www.unfpa.org/swp/2006/english/chapter_1/print/chapter_1.html>
  • UNDP/UNFPA, UNICEF and WFP. “Agenda Item 2: Unstable Food Prices and Linkage to Food and Nutrition Security.” Joint Meeting of the Executive Boards, Background document, final draft New York 23 and 26 Jan. 2009:1-5
  • UNDP/UNFPA. “First regular session 2009, Daily Brief.” Executive Board. New York 20 Jan. 2009, UNFPA segment
  • Youth Roundtable of the Expert Group Meeting. “Creating strategies for youth employment in African cities.” Summary of preliminary outcome Nairobi, Kenya, 21-25 June 2004
  • Waldinger, Roger, and Thomas Bailey. “The youth employment problem in the world city.” Social Policy Summer 1985:55-58
  • Ware, Helen. “Population and society: issues, research, policy - Pacific instability and youth bulges: the devil in the demography and the economy.” Australian Population Association, 12th Biennial Conference Canberra, Australia 15-17 Sept. 2004: 1-20
  • Wooldridge, Mike. “Charity warns of migration crisis.” BBC News 14 May 2007<http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/6652573.stm>

 

1 http://www.cfr.org/publication/13093