Burgeoning Population Growth and Rapid Urbanization

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WHAT IS AT STAKE

In 2008 some 3.3 billion people, more than half the world’s population, lived in urban areas1. This number is expected to balloon to some 5 billion by 2030. Nearly all urban population growth will occur in Africa, Asia, and Latin America – the regions least prepared to deal with rapid urbanization.

In the developing world, urbanization comes hand in hand with unequal resource allocation between slum dwellings and planned neighborhoods and, by default, unequal access to basic economic and resource opportunities (including employment, education, health services, food and water, etc).

Some 1 billion people live in shanty towns across the developing south, and projected urban growth is expected to add some 300 million slum dwellers by 2020. This poses potentially serious implications for both human security and conflict prevention efforts as situations of instability arise as much from absolute natural resource scarcity as from perceptions of deprivation, marginalization, and abuse by the ruling elite.

In poor countries, strong evidence links the combination of high population growth, rapid urbanization, and land and water scarcity to the potential for violent conflict. In 2008 several countries plunged into instability and violence, as witnessed in Haiti where five people died during the food riots in April 2008. Indeed, the global situation was so dire it forced the World Bank to issue a statement warning that 33 countries risked serious upheaval and violence due to rising food insecurity.

Most countries currently experiencing conflict are classified as low-income food deficit countries by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). While high population density and low natural resource availability do not automatically engender violent conflict, if not managed properly they may well become one of its major driving factors. History points to how struggles for natural resources such as land have repeatedly been accompanied by social and political violence as perceptions of unfairness stemming from subsistence desperation and the belief of having nothing left to lose triggered violent uprisings in the developing south2.

 

AREAS AT RISK

Unchecked, the potential for violent conflict in some of the most populated and food-insecure areas in the world is very high. This includes parts of Central Asia, the Caribbean, Central America, West Africa, East Africa, and Southern Africa3.  Particularly vulnerable are: Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Haiti, Guatemala, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, Chad, Rwanda, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, and Mozambique.

As the links between conflict, population growth, urbanization, and rising food insecurity become increasingly apparent, it is clear that the international community’s food security and development programs must factor in elements of conflict prevention, mitigation, and human security.

 

WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE?

Addressing burgeoning population growth and rapid urbanization requires actions at the national, regional, and global levels. Members of the Parliamentarians Network are particularly well positioned to address the potential for violent conflict by driving legislative change and enforcing early action by their governments towards improving preventive diplomatic efforts.

The most critical issues affecting population growth, urbanization, and rising food insecurity relate to people’s rights of access to natural resources, especially land. Parliamentarians can raise awareness with their constituencies about the mounting national, regional, and global challenge of burgeoning population growth and rapid urbanization. They can also call on their governments to do the same and additionally:

  • Increase capacity building and share best practices, including country-to-country sharing of technology in the areas of poverty eradication and infrastructure support as has been done within the framework of south-south cooperation;
  • Provide basic services to the poor: land tenure, affordable shelter, water, sanitation, education, health, and social security;
  • Investigate, resource, and implement projects which identify and tap local capacities for sustainable development; and
  • Tackle bigger issues of corruption which hamper and distort progress towards economic development.

 

WHO IS DOING WHAT ALREADY?

  • Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research: CGIAR works to achieve sustainable food security and reduce poverty in developing countries through scientific research and research-related activities in the fields of agriculture, forestry, fisheries, policy, and environment.
  • Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios: EACH-FOR is a two year long research project funded by the European Commission. Its goal is to support European policies, research and the civil society with 'forced migration' scenarios, and cooperate with other migration and environment degradation related projects and institutions
  • Food and Agriculture Organization: The FAO leads international efforts to defeat hunger. Serving both developed and developing countries, FAO acts as a forum where nations meet to negotiate agreements and debate policy. FAO also helps developing countries and countries in transition modernize and improve agriculture, forestry and fisheries practices and ensure good nutrition for all. 
  • Human Security Network: The HSN is a group of like-minded countries that maintains dialogue on questions pertaining to human security. The HSN identifies concrete areas for collective action and pursues security policies that focus on the protection and security requirement of the individual and society.
  • International Organization for Migration: IOM works to help ensure the orderly and humane management of migration, to promote international cooperation on migration issues, to assist in the search for practical solutions to migration problems, and to provide humanitarian assistance to migrants in need, including refugees and internally displaced people.
  • Population Action International: PAI works to ensure that every person has the right and access to sexual and reproductive health, so that humanity and the natural environment can exist in balance and fewer people live in poverty. PAI fosters the development of U.S. and international policy on urgent population and reproductive health issues through an integrated program of research, advocacy and communications.
  • The Famine Early Warning Systems Network: FEWS NET collaborates with international, regional and national partners to provide timely and rigorous early warning and vulnerability information on emerging and evolving food security issues.
  • The Future Group: a Canadian-based non-governmental organization dedicated to combating human trafficking and the child sex trade.
  • The Global Commission on International Migration: GCIM was launched by the United Nations Secretary-General and a number of governments in 2003. It is comprised of 19 Commissioners, is independent and was given the mandate to provide the framework for the formulation of a coherent, comprehensive and global response to the issue of international migration.
  • The International Food Policy Research Institute: IFPRI seeks sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty. IFPRI's vision (a world free of hunger and malnutrition) is based on the human right to adequate food and freedom from hunger, and the recognition of the dignity inherent in all human beings.
  • The Migration Policy Institute: MPI is an independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit think tank dedicated to analysis of the movement of people worldwide. It provides analysis, development, and evaluation of migration and refugee policies at the local, national, and international levels. It aims to meet the rising demand for pragmatic and thoughtful responses to the challenges and opportunities that large-scale migration, whether voluntary or forced, presents to communities and institutions in an increasingly integrated world.
  • United Nations Development Program: the UNDP advocates for change and connects countries to knowledge, experience and resources to help people build a better life. UNDP works in 166 countries to build local to global and national development challenges.
  • United Nations Population Fund: UNFPA supports countries in using population data for policies and programs to reduce poverty and to ensure that every pregnancy is wanted, every birth is safe, every young person is free of HIV/AIDS, and every girl and woman is treated with dignity and respect.

Others players and initiatives include: UNEP, UNESCO, UNICEF, WFP, OECD, the World Bank, Human Rights Watch, etc.
 

KEY DOCUMENTS FOR REFERENCE

  • African Population & Health Research Center (APHRC). “The effects of population growth on the achievement of the MDG on child mortality in urban Sub-Saharan Africa.” 15 March 2006: 1-9
  • All Party Parliamentary Group on Population, Development and Reproductive Health. “Return of the population growth factor: its impact upon the MDG.” Report of Hearings Jan. 2007:1-74
  • “Armed Conflict and Hunger – Underlying Causes of Hunger and Conflict.” Hunger Notes <http://www.worldhunger.org/articles/fall2000/messer5.htm>
  • Beehner, Lionel. “The effects of ‘Youth Bulge’ on civil conflicts.” Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) 27 Apr. 2007 <http://www.cfr.org/publication/13093>
  • “Brussels declaration on preventing and combating trafficking in Human Beings.” Migration Information Source, Migration Policy Institute <http://www.migrationinformation.org/Feature/brussels.cfm>
  • Callovi, Giuseppe, and the staff of the Migration Policy Institute. “Securing External Frontiers in a Union of 25.” Dutch Presidency Conference on Asylum, Migration and Frontiers, Policy Brief 5, Sept. 2004 <http://www.migrationpolicy.org/events/callovi_083104.pdf>
  • EACH-FOR. “Preliminary Findings from the EACH-FOR project on Environmentally induced Migration.” Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios Project, 1 Sept. 2008: 1-32<http://www.each-for.eu/documents/EACH-FOR_Preliminary_Findings_-_Final_Version.pdf>.
  • Fix, Michael, Demetrios G. Papademetriou, and Betsy Cooper. “Leaving too much to chance: a roundtable on Immigration Integration Policy.” Migration Policy Institute 2005: 1-39 <http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/LeavingTooMuch_Report.pdf>
  • Geinitz, Dedo, and Ines Reinhard. “Conflict Migration through food security?” Integrated Food Security Programme (IFSP) Trincomalee, Sri Lanka, Working Paper 36 (Nov. 2002)
  • Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Ragnhild Nordǻs, and Idean Salehyan. “Climate change and conflict: the migration link” Coping with Crisis Working Paper Series, International Peace Academy May 2007: 1-19 <http://www.ipacademy.org/asset/file/169/CWC_Working_Paper_Climate_Change.pdf>
  • Global Commission on International Migration (GCIM). “Migration in an interconnected world: new directions for action.” Oct. 2005: 1-98
  • “Human Security Crisis of Global Proportions.” The Future Group, Human Trafficking – Overview 2007 <http://tfgwebmaster.web.aplus.net/wwwthefuturegrouporg/id20.html>
  • International Organization for Migration (IOM) & Permanent Mission of Greece, Geneva. “Climate change, environmental degradation and migration: addressing vulnerabilities and harnessing opportunities.” Report of the conference Geneva 19 Feb. 2008:1-20
  • “Impact of the crisis on developing countries.” CONCORD Briefing Paper Feb. 2009
  • “Impact of the global financial crisis on migration.” IOM, Policy Paper Geneva Jan. 2009.
  • International Labour Organization (ILO). “Global employment trends for youth.” Geneva 2006: 1-58
  • Messer, Ellen, and Marc J. Cohen. “Conflict, Food Insecurity, and Globalization.” International Food Policy Research Institute (FCND), Food Consumption and Nutrition Division, Discussion Paper 206, May 2006:1-60
  • Pastor, Manuel, and Rhonda Ortiz. “Immigration Integration in Los Angeles – Strategic Directions for Funders.” Program for Environmental and Regional Equity & Center for the Study of Immigrant Integration, University of Southern California, Commissioned by the California Community Foundation, Jan. 2009 <http://college.usc.edu/geography/ESPE/documents/immigrant_integration.pdf>
  • Sangeeta Kumari Singh Deo. Statement. “Agenda item 50: Implementation of the outcome of the United Nations conference on human settlements (HABITAT II) and strengthening of the United nations human settlements programme (UN-HABITAT) at the second committee of the 63rd session of the United Nations General Assembly.” 28 Oct. 2008
  • “The good, The Bad, The Promising: Migration in the 21st century.” UNFPA State of World Population 2006, A passage to hope, Women and International Migration 27 Feb. 2009 <http://www.unfpa.org/swp/2006/english/chapter_1/print/chapter_1.html>
  • UNDP/UNFPA, UNICEF and WFP. “Agenda Item 2: Unstable Food Prices and Linkage to Food and Nutrition Security.” Joint Meeting of the Executive Boards, Background document, final draft New York 23 and 26 Jan. 2009:1-5
  • UNDP/UNFPA. “First regular session 2009, Daily Brief.” Executive Board. New York 20 Jan. 2009, UNFPA segment
  • Youth Roundtable of the Expert Group Meeting. “Creating strategies for youth employment in African cities.” Summary of preliminary outcome Nairobi, Kenya, 21-25 June 2004
  • Waldinger, Roger, and Thomas Bailey. “The youth employment problem in the world city.” Social Policy Summer 1985:55-58
  • Ware, Helen. “Population and society: issues, research, policy - Pacific instability and youth bulges: the devil in the demography and the economy.” Australian Population Association, 12th Biennial Conference Canberra, Australia 15-17 Sept. 2004: 1-20
  • Wooldridge, Mike. “Charity warns of migration crisis.” BBC News 14 May 2007<http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/6652573.stm>

 

1 UNFPA State of the World Population 2007: http://www.unfpa.org/swp/2007/english/introduction.html

2 Environmental Resource Scarcities & Subsistence Crises: http://www.worldhunger.org/articles/fall2000/messer5.htm

3 Famine Early Warning Systems Network: http://www.fews.net